After being consistently negative for the past couple of months, El Nino is likely to weaken further. According to IMD, rainfall deficit (from 1st June) has reduced substantially to 13% below normal. The most deficient regions are south (-28%), followed by east, north east, north west (-10%), and central (-8%).
As per World Weather Inc, planting and establishment conditions have been poor for most locations since the beginning of June. Time is running out in most locations and concerns for production losses will increase if dryness persists through early August.
As on 12th July 2019, kharif production covered 39% of its normal area. Total area sown was 41.34 mn ha vs. 45.23 mn ha in 2018 and is 9% lower than last year. As compared to last year, sowing is currently lower for rice (-11%), pulses (-25%), coarse cereals at (-7%), oilseeds at (-10%), and sugarcane at (-4%).
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